Readers know I expect 2009 to bad, especially in the UK. So far, the bike market is slowing, but doesn’t seem to have collapsed like the car market. But that situation is perhaps 3-6 months away in my opinion.
Consider this; sterling has lost 45% of its value against the yen, some 33% against the euro. What will manufacturers – Triumph excepted – do to prices in 2009? If they don’t put them up in the UK, people from Ireland and Europe will start coming to UK dealers to buy new bikes. If they raise sterling prices, the UK market will collapse…but the wider eurozone may survive the worst of the downturn.
Moving on, despte a ridiculous article in MCN recently stating that the industry is almost recession-proof, dealerships are heading into, or filing for bankruptcy. Long established stores, finding stock loans impossibly expensive, overheads rising, sales slumping, will suddenly go pop in large numbers, as the sales dip really hits hard.
Importers and wholsesale distributors will also go down the tubes, how can you jack up prices by 30% and keep selling helmets, boots, gloves etc in the same volumes?
Fact; some half a million people, mainly in the private sector, are going to lose their jobs in the 8-12 weeks after Christmas, across the UK economy.
Many wage-earning men are motorcycle owners, they are going to have to sell their bikes, or at least mothball them and forget about buying anything new, or used, until they find regular paid work. It is going to get grim out there.
Why? Well you see, in the end, the government borrowing spree will have to stop. We are bankrupt, in the same way that Iceland, or Spain, or Italy is, only Labour doesn’t want to own up. The judgement day, when it comes, will prompt strikes, food riots, power cuts, looting and possibly armed force being used to clear some city streets after dark.
However, that day may come only AFTER the next election, which Labour intends to buy, simply by throwing taxpayers cash into keeping large scale employers, the State sector and the benefits culture, snug and well-funded. Stupid, but it will fool the morons who tick boxes for a living, blokes who make cars nobody buys, or Northern sluts with 6 kids, who scrounge benefits to stay afloat.
The message that you can’t be paid to do nothing, or work in some made-up non-job isn’t one that many Britons want to hear – we have become a nation of ignorant, idle, self-deluded fools.
What will happen after the next Alice in Wonderland UK election is that our currency will be declared virtually worthless, as the government prints more notes, to stave off the inevitable borrowing defaults, tax rises, and a run on banks, just like Weimar Germany once did in the 20s. It will fail of course, because money only exists, like love or religion, if enough people choose to believe in it – otherwise a tenner is just a fancy firelighter.
WE WILL BE SAVED, BUT BECOME BEGGARS
After some disorder, the UK will agree terms to join the euro in 2011/2012 and re-structure an essentially state-controlled, command economy for some years ahead, with the help of the IMF. Another bank crisis will see at least one High Street finance group collapse, as people withdraw what is left of their savings and spend it, or stash it under the mattress. The Olympics will be cancelled, as the facilities will not be ready on time. Crime will make London a non-starter for overseas visitors too…
Those who think it cannot get that bad are idiots. It can and will. The partial collapse of the motorcycle industry will one day seem a small footnote in the economic maelstrom that lies ahead.
The only upside is that demand for small, economical two-wheelers will rise, as many of us are forced, by law, to sell our cars and use rationed fuel, or travel passes, to go about our everyday business. I predict that by 2015 a driving licence will be more of an ID card, than a right to roam the road network at will. The Chinese will make most small bikes and end up running the world’s car and bike industry as well – hell, they make 80% of the bits on a BMW now…
The world has fundamentally changed in 2008, but the shift in power from those with hedge funds, stocks, pension schemes, companies and houses, all built on fraud and lies, to those with a steady food, water, cheap labour force and a secure energy supply, has yet to be appreciated.
I can see the return of bartering, between people and nations – oil for food, water for cotton…and so on. It happened in the 70s when Abba took oil from Russia for their records – strange yet true.
There will always be an economy, since people have needs like food, shelter and transport, plus the desire to improve their lot in life – what is uncertain is how those desires, those impulse purchases, can be paid for when Britain’s credit card has essentially been cut up by the IMF and international banking system, and chucked in the dustbin of history.
Me? I’m buying a cafe racer, stocking up on tinned food, batteries, thermal clothing, plus jerry cans. I’m looking for defensible premises in a rural location. Don’t recycle your Xmas packaging – it will go in a woodburner one day…
be lucky
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